Launch angle and exit velocity, explained
Modern baseball analysis tracks two numbers on every batted ball: exit velocity, the speed of the ball off the bat in miles per hour, and launch angle, the vertical angle it leaves at in degrees. Together they explain almost everything about what happens next. A ball can be hit hard and still be an easy out if the angle is wrong, and a softly hit ball can drop for a single if it finds the right gap. This tool takes those two inputs and tells you the most likely outcome.
How it works
Statcast sorts batted balls into bands by launch angle:
< 10 deg ground ball
10 to 25 deg line drive
25 to 50 deg fly ball
> 50 deg pop up
On top of the band, the tool checks the barrel definition. A barrel needs at least 98 mph exit velocity and a launch angle in a window that starts at 26 to 30 degrees and widens by roughly one degree on each side for every additional mph of velocity. Barrels are the rarest and most valuable contact in the game. Finally, a simplified carry model estimates distance, peaking near 27 degrees and scaling with how hard the ball was hit.
Tips and examples
A classic barrel is 100 mph at 28 degrees: high velocity, ideal angle, and the result is usually a home run or extra-base hit. Drop that same 100 mph to 5 degrees and you have a screaming ground ball that an infielder will likely turn into an out. Raise it to 55 degrees and you get an infield pop up that is caught over 98 percent of the time. The “sweet spot” hitters chase is the line-drive to low fly-ball range, roughly 10 to 30 degrees, where batting averages are highest. Use the tool to see how small changes in angle swing the outcome even when the ball is hit equally hard.