How much is the first overall pick worth in trade value?

On the commonly cited Hinkie/Morey draft pick value chart, the first overall pick is worth 1000 points. Value falls off quickly, so a mid-first-round pick is worth a small fraction of the top selection.

Which picks sign rookie scale contracts?

Only first-round picks, numbers 1 through 30, sign on the fixed NBA rookie salary scale. Second-round picks are not on the scale and negotiate minimum or partially guaranteed deals, so their contract value varies widely.

What are win shares and why use them?

Win shares estimate how many team wins a player produced through their offense and defense. They are a useful single-number measure of career value, which is why draft research uses expected win shares to compare picks across slots.

Are these numbers guaranteed for any specific player?

No. The contract, win shares, and trade value are modelled expectations from the historical draft curve. Individual outcomes vary enormously, late picks become stars and high picks bust, so treat the figures as averages, not predictions.

Why does value drop so steeply early in the draft?

Talent is concentrated at the top of the draft, so the gap between picks one and five is far larger than between picks twenty and twenty-five. Every value model, contract, win shares, and trade chart, reflects this steep early decay.

Basketball Draft Pick Value Calculator

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A draft pick is an asset with three kinds of value: the salary it locks in, the on-court production it is expected to deliver, and the price it commands in a trade. This calculator estimates all three for any NBA pick from 1 to 60.

How it works

Each output uses a decay curve anchored to known endpoints of the draft. The trade value follows the widely cited pick-value chart, anchored at 1000 points for the top pick:

trade value   = 1000 * e^(-c * (pick - 1))      anchored ~80 at pick 30
rookie scale  = 50M  * e^(-k * (pick - 1))      first round only
win shares    = 45   * e^(-m * (pick - 1))      career expectation

Second-round picks (31 to 60) fall off the rookie salary scale entirely, so the contract figure is replaced with a note that those deals are negotiated.

Notes and caveats

The steep early decline is real: the difference between the first and fifth pick dwarfs the difference between the twentieth and twenty-fifth. These are expectations drawn from the historical draft curve, not predictions for any individual. Late picks routinely become stars and lottery picks bust, so use the numbers to compare slots and structure trades, not to forecast a specific prospect. The trade value here is a smooth approximation of the well-known Hinkie/Morey chart used by NBA front offices.