What is a double hit rate?

It is the percentage of darts thrown at a double that actually land in the double bed to finish a leg. It is the single most important checkout statistic in darts and is tracked by every professional player.

How is the finish probability calculated?

Each dart at a double is an independent Bernoulli trial. The probability of missing all of them is (1 − rate) raised to the number of attempts, so the chance of at least one hit is 1 minus that. The tool multiplies by attempts across your visits.

What is the expected number of attempts?

For a per-dart success probability p, the expected number of darts until your first double is 1 divided by p (a geometric distribution mean). A 25% hit rate means you expect to need about four attempts on average.

Is this realistic for a real leg of darts?

It models the checkout phase only and assumes you have already reduced your score to a finishable double. It treats each double attempt as independent, which is a good approximation for benchmarking practice.

What hit rate should I aim for?

Recreational players often sit at 10–20%, strong club players at 25–35%, and televised professionals frequently average above 40%. Tracking and improving this number is the fastest route to winning more legs.

Darts Scoring Probability Calculator

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A leg of darts is usually decided at the double. This calculator turns your double hit rate into the probability of finishing within a set number of attempts, so you can benchmark practice and set realistic checkout goals.

How it works

Each throw at a double is treated as an independent Bernoulli trial with success probability p (your double hit rate). If you take n attempts in total, the probability of hitting at least one is:

P(finish) = 1 − (1 − p)^n

The total number of attempts is your number of visits multiplied by the darts at a double you take per visit. The expected number of attempts until your first successful double follows a geometric distribution with mean 1 / p.

Example and tips

At a 25% hit rate, a single dart finishes 25% of the time, but across three darts in one visit the chance of at least one double rises to 1 − 0.75^3 ≈ 58%. Over two full visits (six attempts) it climbs to about 82%. Improving your hit rate from 20% to 30% roughly halves the average number of darts you need at a double — which is why checkout practice has the highest leverage in the game.