Destiny 2 style gacha pity
Many gacha systems combine a low base drop rate with a pity mechanic: once your pull count crosses a soft-pity threshold, the per-pull rate ramps up each step until it reaches a hard-pity cap where the drop is guaranteed. This tool models that ramp so you can see your real odds of hitting a top-tier drop within the next batch of pulls and exactly how many pulls remain until a guarantee.
How it works
Below soft pity, every pull uses the flat base rate. From soft pity onward the rate increases linearly each pull until it reaches 100 percent at hard pity:
rate(n) = base if n < softPity
rate(n) = base + step * (n - softPity + 1) if n >= softPity
rate(n) = min(rate(n), 1.0) and = 1.0 at hardPity
The chance of at least one success across your next k pulls is one minus the product of each pull’s miss chance:
P(at least one) = 1 - Π (1 - rate(n)) for the upcoming pulls n
Pulls until guaranteed is simply hardPity - currentPity.
Tips and notes
- The ramp
stepis auto-derived so the rate reaches 100 percent exactly at hard pity, matching the common “guaranteed at cap” design. - Enter the published numbers for your specific banner — base rates and pity caps vary widely between systems and seasons.
- After any top-tier drop, reset current pity to 0; both lucky early drops and hard-pity drops reset the counter.