What is soft pity versus hard pity?

Soft pity is the pull number after which your per-pull rate begins ramping up sharply toward a guarantee. Hard pity is the pull number at which a 5-star or legendary is guaranteed (100% rate). Before soft pity you sit at the base rate.

How is the chance within the next N pulls computed?

The tool multiplies the probability of failing each upcoming pull — accounting for the rising soft-pity rate — to get the chance of no success, then subtracts that from 100%. This is the standard complement-of-survival method.

How are expected pulls to the next drop calculated?

It sums, for each future pull k, k multiplied by the probability that your first success lands exactly on pull k. That weighted average gives the expected number of pulls until your next 5-star.

What if my pity count is already past hard pity?

Then your next pull is guaranteed. The tool reports a 100% chance, an expected one pull, and zero pulls remaining to the guarantee.

Does this use my real account data?

No. Nothing is fetched or stored. You enter the values and all probability math runs entirely in your browser.

Elden Ring Gacha Pity & Pull Calculator

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Know exactly how close you are to a guaranteed pull

Gacha banners use a pity system: the longer you go without a top-rarity drop, the better your odds become, until a hard ceiling guarantees one. This calculator turns your current pity count and the banner’s rules into concrete numbers — your rate right now, the pulls you should expect to need, and the chance of hitting your drop within the pulls you can afford.

How it works

Below the soft-pity threshold every pull has a flat base rate. From soft pity onward the rate ramps linearly toward 100% at hard pity, where a drop is guaranteed. For a pull k within the current pity cycle:

rate(k) = base rate                      if k < soft pity
rate(k) = 1                              if k >= hard pity
rate(k) = ramp from base rate up to 1    between soft and hard pity

The chance of at least one success in the next N pulls is the complement of failing them all:

P(success within N) = 1 − ∏ (1 − rate(pull))   over the next N pulls

The expected pulls to your next drop weights each future pull by the probability your first success lands exactly there: Σ k · P(first success on pull k).

Tips and example

If your base rate is 0.6%, soft pity is at pull 74, and hard pity at 90, then a fresh banner with pity count 0 has a long expected wait near the soft-pity zone. But once your count climbs into the 70s, the rising ramp pushes your per-pull rate up quickly — entering a session at pity 73 means you are usually only a handful of pulls from a near-certain drop. Set the “next N pulls” field to the pulls you can actually afford and read the success chance to decide whether to pull now or save.