How is expected attempts calculated when failure does nothing?

If a failed attempt leaves your level unchanged, each level needs an average of 1 divided by the success probability tries. The tool sums that across every level from your current to your target to get the total expected attempts.

What changes when failure causes a downgrade?

When a miss drops you a level, you can lose progress, so the expected attempts grow. The tool uses an absorbing Markov chain over levels to compute the true average number of attempts to first reach the target, accounting for back-and-forth movement.

Why is the cost an average and not a fixed number?

Enchanting is random, so two players upgrading the same item will use different numbers of attempts. The cost shown is the long-run mean — expected attempts multiplied by the cost per attempt. Your actual spend will scatter around it.

What is a safe level?

A safe level is one where failure cannot drop you below it. If you set the safe floor at your current level, downgrades stop there instead of falling further, which lowers expected attempts and cost compared with unlimited downgrades.

Does a 50 percent success rate mean two attempts on average?

For a single level with no downgrade, yes — the average is 1 over 0.5, or 2 attempts. With downgrades on failure the average rises above 2 because you sometimes lose a level and must climb back.

Terraria Enchant & Gear Score Calculator

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Upgrading gear through random enchants is a gamble, and the cost of reaching a high level can balloon. This calculator turns the per-attempt odds into the real expected number of tries and average material cost, including the case where a failed attempt knocks you back down a level.

How it works

With no downgrade on failure, each level is an independent geometric process, so the average attempts to clear one level is 1 / p and the total is the sum across all levels you must pass. When a miss drops you a level, the levels form an absorbing Markov chain: the tool solves the expected steps to reach the target from your current level, respecting an optional safe floor that blocks further downgrades.

noDowngrade:  E[attempts] = Σ (1 / p)  over each level step
withDowngrade: E[attempts] = solved expected-hitting-time of the chain
totalCost = E[attempts] * costPerAttempt

Tips and example

At a 40 percent success rate from level 3 to level 6 with no downgrade, each level averages 1 / 0.4 = 2.5 attempts, so three levels need about 7.5 attempts. Turn on downgrade-on-fail and that number climbs, because every miss can cost progress. Setting a safe floor at your current level is the cheapest way to tame the cost — it caps how far a bad streak can set you back.