Why is my real chance higher than the listed drop rate?

The listed rate is the chance per single attempt. Across many attempts the chances accumulate. The probability of at least one drop is one minus the chance of never getting it, which rises quickly as attempts add up.

How is at-least-once probability calculated?

The tool uses the formula 1 minus (1 minus p) to the power N, where p is the per-attempt chance and N is the number of attempts. This is the complement of failing every single attempt.

What does expected number of drops mean?

Expected drops equals attempts multiplied by the drop rate. It is the long-run average, so over 50 attempts at 2% you would average 1 drop, though any single run may give zero or several.

How many attempts do I need to be 90% sure?

Enter 90 as your target confidence and the tool solves N equals the ceiling of ln(1 minus C) divided by ln(1 minus p). For a 2.5% drop you need about 91 attempts to be 90% likely to see at least one.

Does this account for pity systems?

No. This calculator assumes a flat, independent drop rate every attempt. Games with pity or guaranteed thresholds give better real odds, so treat this as the worst-case baseline.

Apex Legends Drop Rate & Probability Calculator

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Loot drop rates are quoted per attempt, but what you actually care about is your odds across a whole grind. This calculator turns a per-attempt drop rate into the real cumulative probability of getting the item at least once over many tries.

How it works

Each attempt is treated as an independent event with probability p. The chance of failing every one of N attempts is (1 - p) multiplied by itself N times, so the chance of at least one success is its complement:

P(at least once) = 1 - (1 - p)^N
P(never)         = (1 - p)^N
Expected drops   = N × p

To find how many attempts reach a target confidence C, solve for N:

N = ceil( ln(1 - C) / ln(1 - p) )

Example and tips

A 2.5% drop over 50 attempts gives 1 - 0.975^50 ≈ 71.8% — far above 2.5%, but still not a sure thing. Note that “expected drops” can exceed 1 while your at-least-once probability stays below 100%; averages and certainty are different questions. If the game uses a pity counter or a guaranteed drop after a set number of tries, your real odds are better than this flat-rate model shows.