Why is the expected attempt count so much higher than the level gap?

Because high enchant levels can fail or downgrade. A failed attempt leaves the level unchanged and a downgrade pushes it backwards, so the expected number of attempts to climb the last few levels grows far faster than a simple count of the steps between current and target.

How does the calculator handle downgrades?

It models the upgrade as a Markov chain and solves the expected attempts from each level using first-step analysis. The expected attempts at a level account for the probability of staying, advancing, or dropping a level, then propagate that backward to your starting level.

What is the one-shot chance?

It is the probability of advancing through every level from current to target with no failures at all, found by multiplying the per-level success rates together. For long upgrades this number gets very small, which is why expected attempts is the more practical figure.

Does the item tier change the odds?

The tier does not change the success odds in this model; it scales the material cost per attempt. A legendary item costs several times more per attempt than a common one, so the expected total cost rises sharply even when the attempt count is the same.

Are these the exact rates from a specific game?

No. The tool uses a representative MMO-style enchant curve where success falls and downgrade risk rises with level. It is a planning model for understanding expected cost and attempts, not a lookup of one game's exact published rates.

Destiny 2 Enchant & Gear Score Calculator

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The Enchant & Gear Score Calculator answers the question every upgrade grind raises: how many attempts and how much material will it really take to push my gear from here to my target level? It accounts for the failures and downgrades that make late enchant levels punishing.

How it works

Each enchant level has three outcomes: success (advance a level), fail (stay put), or downgrade (drop a level). The expected attempts to reach the target are solved with first-step analysis over the level chain:

E[i] (1 - fail_i) = 1 + down_i x E[i-1] + success_i x E[i+1]
E[target] = 0

The tool iterates this system until it converges, then does the same for cost — weighting each attempt by the tier-scaled material cost. The one-shot chance is simply the product of the per-level success rates.

Tips and example

Going from level 8 to level 10 on a legendary item looks like a two-step jump, but with success rates around 50 and 30 percent and real downgrade risk, the expected attempts can run into the dozens and the material cost into the hundreds. Bank materials before attempting the final levels, and consider whether protective items (which reduce downgrade risk in many games) are worth their cost given the expected-attempt savings this tool reveals.