What is a pity system?

A pity system raises your chance of a rare reward as you go without one, then guarantees it at a hard cap. It bounds bad luck: even the unluckiest player is assured the reward by the hard-pity pull, unlike a pure random drop.

What is soft pity versus hard pity?

Soft pity is the pull where your per-pull odds begin climbing above the base rate. Hard pity is the pull where the reward is guaranteed. Between them, each pull is more likely than the last to deliver the reward.

How is expected pulls calculated?

The tool simulates the ramping probability pull by pull from your current pity to hard pity, weighting each outcome by the chance of first success on that pull. Summing pull number times its probability gives the expected pulls.

Does Diablo 4 actually use gacha pity?

Diablo 4's core loot is not a classic gacha, but seasonal reward tracks and similar systems behave like pity tracks. Enter the thresholds your specific track uses and the maths applies to any soft-pity, hard-pity reward.

How do I read the within-budget chance?

It is the cumulative probability of getting the reward on or before your budgeted pull, given the ramping odds and your current pity. If it is below your comfort level, save more currency before pulling.

Diablo 4 Gacha Pity & Pull Calculator

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Pity systems bound bad luck: your odds rise the longer you go without a reward, and a hard cap guarantees it eventually. This calculator models a soft-pity, hard-pity track from your current position to tell you the pulls left to your guarantee, the average pulls to a hit, and your odds within a budget.

How it works

Before soft pity, each pull uses the base rate. From soft pity onward the per-pull chance ramps linearly up to a guaranteed hard-pity pull:

chance(pull) = base                              if pull < soft pity
chance(pull) = base + (1 − base) × ramp fraction  between soft and hard pity
chance(hardPity) = 1                              (guaranteed)

The tool walks pull by pull from your current pity, tracking the probability the reward first lands on each pull, then sums those to get expected pulls and the cumulative within-budget chance.

Example and tips

On a track with a hard pity of 90 and a current pity of 74, you are at most 16 pulls from a guarantee, but the ramping soft-pity odds often deliver well before that — the expected figure is usually several pulls below the hard cap. Always check the within-budget chance before pulling so you only commit currency when the odds, not just the hard cap, are in your favour.