How does the pity system work in this model?

Below soft pity the base rate applies. From soft pity onward the rate climbs each pull until it reaches 100 percent at hard pity, which guarantees a drop. The tool ramps the rate linearly between soft and hard pity, the standard model for these systems.

How many pulls until my guaranteed drop?

Your guaranteed pull is at the hard-pity threshold, so the distance is hard pity minus your current pity count. At 60 pity with hard pity at 90, you are guaranteed a drop within 30 more pulls.

How is the chance within N pulls calculated?

The tool multiplies the per-pull failure chances pull by pull, using the ramped rate once you cross soft pity, then takes one minus the product. This gives the true cumulative at-least-once probability across your available pulls.

What if I have not reached soft pity yet?

Until your counter crosses the soft-pity threshold, every pull uses the flat base rate. Once it crosses, the rate increases each pull toward the hard-pity guarantee, raising your odds quickly near the cap.

Does carried-over pity count?

Yes — enter your current accumulated pity, not zero, if the banner carries your counter over. The distance to hard pity and the cumulative odds both start from that count rather than from a fresh pull.

Final Fantasy XIV Gacha Pity & Pull Calculator

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Gacha and pull systems in Final Fantasy XIV soften pure randomness with a pity counter: your odds rise as you go without a hit, and a hard cap guarantees one eventually. This calculator tracks your pity, shows how far the guarantee is, and gives the true cumulative odds of pulling within the pulls you have.

How it works

Below the soft-pity threshold each pull uses the flat base rate. From soft pity to hard pity the rate ramps linearly to 100 percent, and the cumulative at-least-once odds multiply the per-pull failure chances:

rate(i) = base                                  if pity(i) < softPity
rate(i) = base + (1 − base) ×
          (pity(i) − softPity) / (hardPity − softPity)   otherwise
P(hit within N) = 1 − Π over the N pulls of (1 − rate(i))
distance to guarantee = hardPity − current pity

At hard pity the ramp reaches 1, so a drop is guaranteed no later than that pull.

Example and tips

With a 0.6 percent base rate, soft pity at 74 and hard pity at 90, sitting at 60 pity means you are guaranteed a hit within 30 more pulls. Your odds stay low until pull 74, then climb sharply, so saving currency to reach soft pity before spending heavily is the efficient play. Enter your real carried-over pity, not zero, so the distance and odds start from where you actually are.