Gacha systems hide their true odds behind a pity mechanic: the longer you go without a top-rarity pull, the better your chances get, until a guaranteed drop. This calculator tracks your pity counter and tells you the real cumulative probability of a 5-star within your planned pulls.
How it works
The model uses three rules that match the most common gacha implementations:
base rate = 0.6% per pull (pity 1..73)
soft pity = from pull 74, rate += ~6% each pull
hard pity = pull 90 is a guaranteed 5-star (rate = 100%)
cumulative chance = 1 − Π (1 − rate at each pull)
Multiplying the per-pull failure chances and subtracting from one gives the chance of at least one success across the run — the correct way to combine independent per-pull probabilities.
Example and tips
Starting from a pity of 70 with 25 pulls saved, your run crosses the soft-pity ramp almost immediately and reaches the pull-90 guarantee, so your cumulative chance is effectively 100 percent. Starting from pity 0 with the same 25 pulls, the rate stays at the 0.6 percent base the whole time, giving only around a 14 percent chance. If you are close to soft pity, it is usually worth pulling; if you are far from it, banking pulls until you can clear the ramp in one session is more efficient.