What is soft pity and hard pity?

Hard pity is the pull number at which a rare is guaranteed. Soft pity is a window before it where the per-pull rate climbs steeply each pull. Together they cap how unlucky you can be.

How does the calculator model soft pity?

Below the soft-pity pull it uses the flat base rate. From the soft-pity pull onward it ramps the rate linearly up to 100 percent at hard pity, which closely matches how most gacha systems behave.

Why does my current pity count matter?

Pity carries over between pulls, so starting at pull 60 of a 90 hard-pity banner means you are already deep into the soft-pity ramp. Your remaining pulls are far more likely to hit than a fresh start.

What is the at-least-once probability?

It is one minus the chance of failing every pull in your planned batch, using each pull's individual rate. This correctly combines the flat early pulls with the rising soft-pity pulls.

Does this guarantee real odds for a specific game?

It is a faithful model of the common soft-pity plus hard-pity structure, but exact rates vary by banner. Enter the published base rate and pity thresholds for your game to match its real numbers.

Pokémon Gacha Pity & Pull Calculator

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Gacha pity systems mean your odds are not a flat number — they climb as your pity count rises. This calculator tracks your current pity, models the soft-pity ramp and hard-pity guarantee, and tells you your real chance of pulling a rare Pokémon within your planned pulls.

How it works

Below the soft-pity pull the per-pull chance is the flat base rate. From soft pity to hard pity the rate ramps linearly to a guaranteed pull:

if pull < softPity:      rate = baseRate
if pull >= softPity:     rate = baseRate + (1 − baseRate) ×
                                 (pull − softPity + 1) / (hardPity − softPity + 1)
at pull == hardPity:     rate = 1.0  (guaranteed)

The chance of at least one rare across your planned pulls is the complement of missing on every one, using each pull’s own rate:

P(at least one) = 1 − Π (1 − rate_pull)

Example and tips

On a banner with a 0.6 percent base rate, soft pity at pull 74, and hard pity at pull 90, a player sitting at pity 70 who plans 20 pulls is effectively guaranteed a rare, because they will cross hard pity at 90. A fresh account doing the same 20 pulls has only a few percent chance. Always enter your real carried-over pity — it is the single biggest factor in your odds.