How are expected attempts calculated?

Each upgrade attempt is an independent trial, so the expected number of attempts to succeed once is one divided by the success probability. A 25 percent rate means about 4 attempts per level on average.

What if the success rate drops at higher levels?

Use the per-level rate field to set a different chance for each level if your game lowers the odds as gear improves. The tool then sums the expected attempts level by level instead of assuming a flat rate.

Does this account for downgrade or destruction on failure?

The base estimate assumes a failed attempt simply wastes materials with no level loss. If your game can drop a level on failure, the real attempt count will be higher than the pure geometric estimate shown.

How is total cost estimated?

It multiplies the total expected attempts across all levels by your per-attempt material or currency cost. This gives the average spend, though actual runs vary because of luck.

Why is the expected cost only an average?

Upgrade outcomes are random, so any single run can be far cheaper or far more expensive than the mean. Budget extra beyond the expected cost to cover an unlucky streak, especially near high enchant levels.

Pokémon Enchant & Gear Score Calculator

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Enchanting gear in Pokémon games is a gamble where each attempt can fail and burn materials. This calculator uses geometric expectation to estimate how many attempts and how much material you will need on average to push an item from its current enchant level to your target.

How it works

For a single level with success probability p, the expected number of attempts to succeed once is the geometric mean:

expectedAttempts(level) = 1 / p

Across a range of levels, the total is the sum of each level’s expected attempts. Multiplying by the per-attempt cost gives the average spend:

totalAttempts = Σ (1 / p_level)
totalCost     = totalAttempts × costPerAttempt

This assumes a failed attempt wastes materials but does not lower the level. If your game destroys or downgrades gear on failure, the true cost is higher.

Example and tips

Going from +3 to +6 at a flat 25 percent success rate needs about 4 attempts per level, or 12 attempts total, so at 500 materials per attempt you should budget roughly 6000. Because each level is independent and random, set aside extra for variance — a bad streak at the final level can easily double the cost. If your game offers protection scrolls that prevent downgrades, factor their cost in too.