How does soft pity work in this model?

Below the soft-pity threshold the per-pull rate equals the base rate. From the soft-pity pull onward the rate climbs in equal steps each pull until it reaches 100% at the hard-pity pull, matching how most gacha ramps behave.

Hard pity is the pull number at which a 5-star is guaranteed. In this model the per-pull rate reaches 100% on that pull, so you can never exceed it without a success.

How is the cumulative chance calculated?

The tool multiplies the failure probability of each individual pull, accounting for the rising rate after soft pity, then subtracts that product from one to get the at-least-once probability across your planned pulls.

Does my current pity carry over?

Yes. The model starts counting from your current pity, so a high starting pity reaches soft pity faster and raises your odds for the same number of pulls.

Why is the average pull count below hard pity?

Because the soft-pity ramp resolves most pulls before the guarantee triggers. The expected pull count is usually a little above the soft-pity start, not at hard pity.

Stardew Valley Gacha Pity & Pull Calculator

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Plan your Stardew Valley gacha pulls with real pity math

Banner odds are not a flat percentage — most use a soft-pity ramp that quietly raises your chance every pull, then a hard-pity guarantee. This calculator models both so you can see your true chance of a 5-star for the pulls you can actually afford.

How it works

Each pull’s success rate depends on its position. Below the soft-pity pull the rate is the flat base rate b. From the soft-pity pull s onward, the rate climbs linearly to 100% at the hard-pity pull h:

rate(k) = b                              for k < s
rate(k) = b + (1 - b) × (k - s) / (h - s)   for s ≤ k ≤ h

Starting at your current pity, the chance of failing every pull is the product of (1 - rate(k)) across each planned pull, and the chance of at least one 5-star is one minus that product. The expected pull count is computed by weighting each pull number by the probability the first success lands exactly there.

Tips and example

With a 0.6% base rate, soft pity at pull 74, and hard pity at 90, a single pull from zero pity is almost hopeless, but the ramp makes the average around pull 62. If you already sit at pity 70, even 10 pulls gives you very strong odds because each one is climbing the steep part of the ramp. Adjust the thresholds to match the exact banner you are planning for.