How is the expected number of attempts calculated?

For a fixed per-attempt success rate p, the mean number of attempts to your first success is 1 divided by p, the geometric distribution mean. A 35% success rate averages about 2.9 attempts, though any individual run can be higher or lower.

How is the expected cost found?

Expected cost is the cost per attempt divided by the success rate, since each attempt costs the same and you average 1 over p attempts. At 500 per attempt and a 35% rate, the expected cost to succeed is about 1,430.

Does a string of failures improve my next chance?

Not for a flat success rate. Each attempt is independent, so failing five times in a row does not raise the sixth attempt's odds. Only games with an explicit pity or stacking-bonus mechanic break this rule, which this tool does not assume.

What does chance within N attempts mean?

It is the probability of at least one success across your budgeted attempts, equal to one minus the chance of failing all of them. With a 35% rate over 5 attempts, that is about 88%, so you usually succeed but not always.

How do I handle item-destroying enchants?

If failure destroys or downgrades the item, the simple model understates risk. Treat the cost per attempt as including the value of the item lost on failure, which raises the expected cost and better reflects the real gamble.

Valorant Enchant & Gear Score Calculator

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High-level enchants and gear upgrades often have brutal success rates, and going in blind can drain your resources fast. This calculator uses geometric distribution math to tell you the true expected attempts and total cost to reach your target, plus the odds you succeed within the attempts you can afford.

How it works

For a fixed per-attempt success rate p (entered as a percentage), the key figures are:

expected attempts = 1 / p
expected cost      = cost per attempt / p
chance within N    = 1 - (1 - p)^N

The expected attempts and cost come from the geometric distribution, which models repeated independent trials until the first success. The within-N chance is the binomial complement: one minus the probability of failing every budgeted attempt.

Example and notes

At a 35% success rate with 500 cost per attempt, the expected number of attempts is 1 / 0.35 ≈ 2.9, and the expected cost is 500 / 0.35 ≈ 1,430. Over a budget of 5 attempts your chance of at least one success is 1 - 0.65^5 ≈ 88%. Remember that each attempt is independent — a run of failures does not improve the next attempt unless your game has a documented pity system. If a failed enchant destroys the item, add its value into the per-attempt cost to capture the real downside risk.