What is soft pity versus hard pity?

Soft pity is a point after which the per-pull rate climbs steeply with each pull, dramatically raising your odds. Hard pity is the pull where the drop is guaranteed. Many games use a roughly 0.6 percent base rate, soft pity near pull 74, and hard pity at 90.

Why does my pity count carry over?

Pity counts pulls since your last top-tier drop, and it does not reset until you win. The tool starts the probability chain from your current pity, so the closer you are to soft pity the higher your odds become.

How is the chance within N pulls computed?

It multiplies the chance of failing each individual pull, where later pulls in the soft-pity zone have rising rates, then subtracts that combined failure chance from one. This correctly accounts for the increasing rate as you approach hard pity.

What does expected pulls to guarantee mean?

It is the probability-weighted average number of additional pulls until you hit the drop, accounting for both the rising soft-pity rate and the hard-pity guarantee. It is usually well below the hard-pity distance because most drops happen in the soft-pity ramp.

Do these numbers match my exact game?

The model is correct for standard soft-then-hard pity systems, but exact base rates and thresholds vary by game and banner. Enter your game's published rates for accurate results, and treat the defaults as Genshin-style placeholders.

CS2 Gacha Pity & Pull Calculator

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Gacha odds feel random until you understand pity. After a soft-pity threshold the per-pull rate climbs steeply, and at hard pity the drop is guaranteed. This calculator models that exact system so you know your real chance over the next N pulls and how many pulls separate you from a guarantee.

How it works

The per-pull rate depends on where you are relative to the soft and hard pity points, and the cumulative odds chain those rates together:

rate(i) = p0                              if i < softPity
rate(i) = min(1, p0 + (i − soft + 1)×r)   if soft ≤ i < hardPity
rate(i) = 1                               if i ≥ hardPity
P(win within N) = 1 − Π (1 − rate(i))

Because the rate ramps in the soft-pity zone, your cumulative odds rise far faster than the flat base rate suggests. The expected-pulls figure is the probability- weighted average pull on which you win, which is usually well short of hard pity.

Example

With pity at 60, a 0.6 percent base rate, soft pity at 74 and hard pity at 90, your next pull is still near base rate, but 20 more pulls carry you into the steep ramp and lift your cumulative chance well above 60 percent. On average you would win in roughly 15 to 20 more pulls rather than the full 30 to hard pity.

Notes

Enter your specific game and banner rates for accuracy — published base rates, soft-pity starts, and ramp speeds differ between titles. The defaults model a common 0.6 percent / soft 74 / hard 90 system.